empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
08.01.2025 08:56 AM
Gold Holds Its Ground
Open trading account Open demo account

Gold has shown resilience despite speculation surrounding Donald Trump's trade tariffs and a series of strong U.S. economic data. The precious metal found support amid uncertainty regarding the policies of the U.S. president-elect, as well as an increase in the volume of gold reserves held by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), which rose from 72.96 million to 73.29 million ounces in December. In 2024, the PBoC acquired 44 tons of gold, contributing significantly to the 27% rally in XAU/USD last year. After a six-month hiatus, the PBoC resumed its gold operations in November and December.

Central bank purchases, the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, and geopolitical risks were the primary factors driving the upward movement of XAU/USD last year. However, some of these factors have weakened, leading Goldman Sachs to revise its 2025 gold forecast from $3,000 to $2,910 per ounce. The bank suggests that a pause in the Fed's monetary easing cycle will result in further capital outflows from specialized exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a trend that has persisted for the past four consecutive years.

Capital Flows in Gold ETFs

This image is no longer relevant

Declining interest in gold among retail investors is offset by increased demand from central banks, which allows Goldman Sachs to maintain a positive outlook on gold's future. The bank predicts that central banks will purchase an average of 39 tons of gold per month in 2025.

In contrast, speculators are less optimistic about gold compared to Goldman Sachs. They have decreased their net long positions in gold to six-month lows, anticipating a prolonged pause in the Fed's monetary easing cycle. Additionally, the growth in U.S. service sector activity—from 52.1 to 54.1 in December—and the rise in job openings from 7.8 million to 8.1 million in November have increased the chances of keeping the federal funds rate at 4.5% through the end of the year, raising the probability from 12% to 17%.

The futures market anticipates one act of monetary easing in 2025, with the chances of a second cut falling from 70% to 35%. This pushes the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds higher and supports the dollar. Since gold is priced in the U.S. dollar, its correlation with the USD index is typically inverse.

Gold and U.S. Dollar Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Gold has shown resilience against the strengthening U.S. dollar, driven by speculation surrounding Donald Trump's trade tariffs and the decline in U.S. stock indices, which have increased its appeal as a safe-haven asset. If market reactions continue to be influenced by the U.S. president's unpredictable decisions, a significant drop in the XAU/USD exchange rate is unlikely.

On the daily chart, gold is currently consolidating within the Splash and Shelf pattern based on the 1-2-3 formation. Prices are near fair value at $2,645 per ounce. If bullish sentiment persists, the likelihood of a rise toward $2,710 increases. Conversely, if buyers fail to maintain their position, the price of gold could decline to $2,585 or lower.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast Gold maintains a bearish tone today, though it has slightly recovered from the daily low, climbing back above the $3300 level. Investors continue to hope for a potential de-escalation
Irina Yanina
12:23 2025-04-25 +02:00
1270
Fundamental analysis
The Market Has Nowhere Left to Run While Donald Trump and Beijing are still trying to figure out whether trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are happening at all, the S&P 500 continues to climb
Marek Petkovich
11:57 2025-04-25 +02:00
1225
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold maintains a bearish tone today, though it has slightly recovered from the daily low, climbing back above the $3300 level. Investors continue to hope for a potential de-escalation
Irina Yanina 12:23 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Market Has Nowhere Left to Run

While Donald Trump and Beijing are still trying to figure out whether trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are happening at all, the S&P 500 continues to climb
Marek Petkovich 11:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The U.S. Dollar Rises — Here's Why

The U.S. dollar strengthened against a number of global currencies, as did the U.S. stock market, following reports that the Chinese government is considering suspending its 125% tariffs on certain
Jakub Novak 11:31 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Why Could Gold Prices Drop Significantly? (There's a chance gold will continue to decline while the CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures contract may rise)

The beginning of actual negotiations could lead to a significant drop in gold prices in the near future. In previous articles, I suggested that the previously surging price of gold
Pati Gani 10:14 2025-04-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 25: The Fed Is Starting to Worry for Real

The GBP/USD currency pair traded higher on Thursday, remaining near its 3-year highs. Despite the British pound's strong rally in recent months, corrections are still rare in the forex market
Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 25: America Files a Lawsuit Against Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly on Thursday, although volatility remained relatively high. This week, the US dollar showed some signs of recovery—something that could already be considered
Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but this doesn't matter, as the market continues to ignore 90% of all publications. Among the more or less significant reports today
Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Yen Is Looking Stronger and Stronger

The nationwide Consumer Price Index published last week showed accelerated core inflation in March—from 2.6% to 2.9%. Inflationary pressure is increasing, supporting the case for further interest rate hikes
Kuvat Raharjo 01:23 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Canada Awaits Election Results. USD/CAD Outlook

Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, as expected. The accompanying statement was neutral in tone, emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Confidence is hard to maintain
Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Australian Dollar Could Suffer If the U.S.-China Trade War Escalates

U.S. President Donald Trump once again commented on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, openly expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts. Another public expression of disapproval of the Fed's
Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-26 UTC--4
The U.S. Dollar Rises — Here's Why
11:31 2025-04-25
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-26 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 25. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:31 2025-04-25
Forecast
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-04-25 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD April 25: The Market Awaits New Announcements from Trump
03:48 2025-04-25
Trading plan
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-27 UTC--4
Why Could Gold Prices Drop Significantly? (There's a chance gold will continue to decline while the CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures contract may rise)
10:14 2025-04-25
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-26 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 25. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:31 2025-04-25
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.