empty
24.03.2025 02:20 PM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

At the start of the week, following the release of a weaker Japanese PMI, the yen came under pressure. This, combined with news of narrower and less aggressive retaliatory tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, has boosted investor confidence and reduced demand for the yen as a safe haven. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates are capping deeper losses for the currency.

According to preliminary estimates, the Au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan fell from 49.0 to 48.3 in March, marking the lowest reading since March 2024 and a nine-month low. It also highlights a decline in the services sector, which contracted for the first time in five months. These data weigh on the yen.

Nevertheless, there are factors supporting the yen and preventing deeper losses—such as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirming the central bank's readiness to adjust its easing policy if inflation reaches the target level. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also stated that the Bank will closely monitor economic and price developments. This signals that the BoJ will act in accordance with economic conditions.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast but maintained its outlook for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. This limits the U.S. dollar's recovery and caps USD/JPY movement near the psychological level of 150.00.

For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of U.S. business activity indices and speeches from FOMC members, which may provide additional momentum for USD/JPY. However, the market's primary focus will be on Friday's releases of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY bulls need to break above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which lies just above the psychological level of 150.00. If this level is breached, spot prices may rise toward the 151.00 round figure and then to the monthly high near 151.30.

However, considering that oscillators on the daily chart have yet to show positive momentum, the Asian session low around 149.33 is currently acting as immediate support ahead of the 149.00 round number. A drop below this level could trigger a break of the 148.60 area, opening the door to deeper losses, with an accelerated decline toward last week's swing low around 148.20 and eventually toward the 148.00 round level, or potentially lower.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

April to play crucial role in Europe's gas future

Europe's gas sector is entering a critical phase, as the end of the heating season sets the stage for refilling storage facilities, which are now two-thirds empty after the winter

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:01 2025-03-31 UTC+2

WTI – West Texas Intermediate. Prices Lack Support for Growth

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are attempting to attract buyers, but the market remains in a state of uncertainty. Concerns over President Trump's aggressive trade tariffs are putting

Irina Yanina 12:39 2025-03-31 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

At the start of the new week during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair attempted to attract buyers, but this was unsuccessful. The euro received support from easing concerns about

Irina Yanina 12:35 2025-03-31 UTC+2

US stock market runs into trouble

Rumors about mutual tariffs and another blow to consumer confidence triggered the second-worst sell-off of the S&P 500 this year. Investors are still holding piles of US stocks

Marek Petkovich 10:58 2025-03-31 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Hello, April: Eurozone Inflation Report, ISM Indices, and Nonfarm Payrolls

The first week of every month is the most informative for EUR/USD traders. The economic calendar traditionally includes a report on inflation growth in the eurozone, American ISM indices

Irina Manzenko 06:28 2025-03-31 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 31: Nonfarm Payrolls, Trump, and Unemployment May Create New Problems for the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade sideways near its highs on Friday. This sideways movement has persisted for several weeks, and the British pound has not managed even

Paolo Greco 06:24 2025-03-31 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 31: A New Week of Trials for the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair rose again on Friday. As we can see, the correction against the upward trend of recent weeks ended very quickly. But that's no surprise, given that

Paolo Greco 06:24 2025-03-31 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 31? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday. The only somewhat interesting reports will come from Germany. Retail sales and inflation data for March will be released. However, we'd

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-03-31 UTC+2

AUD/USD: Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/USD pair continues its sideways consolidation, remaining within a familiar range near the key psychological level of 0.6300. This movement is driven by several factors impacting global market sentiment

Irina Yanina 11:16 2025-03-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is consolidating near the key psychological level of 1.0800, showing no intention of retreating below 1.0780 as traders and investors await the release of the U.S

Irina Yanina 10:45 2025-03-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.