Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.21 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by only 25 points, after which demand for the dollar returned.

Today, in the second half of the day, we expect data on U.S. manufacturing activity, which has recently made many traders and investors question the strength of the U.S. economy. If the ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending figures come out strong, pressure on USD/JPY may ease, leading to a further recovery of the pair within the ongoing bullish correction observed throughout the day. However, weak data could trigger an active sell-off of the pair.

It is important to consider that the pair's dynamics are also influenced by global factors such as geopolitical developments and central bank monetary policies. Any unexpected announcements or events in these areas could significantly alter forecasts and impact the pair's movement.

For intraday trading, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches 151.58, targeting 152.30. At 152.30, I will exit long positions and open sell trades, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. The pair's growth today is expected within the framework of a bullish correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if the price tests 150.83 twice while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal, with upward targets at 151.58 and 152.30.

Selling Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakdown of 150.83, which could trigger a sharp decline. The primary target for sellers will be 150.07, where I will exit short positions and immediately open buy trades, expecting a 20-25 point pullback. Pressure on the pair can arise at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if the price tests 151.58 twice while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal, with downward targets at 150.83 and 150.07.

Chart Details

• Thin green line represents the entry price for buying.
• Thick green line marks the presumed target level for taking profit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line represents the entry price for selling.
• Thick red line marks the presumed target level for taking profit, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator is crucial for determining overbought and oversold conditions before entering a trade.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

New traders should exercise caution when making market entries. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during high-impact news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without proper risk management, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes.

For successful trading, it is crucial to follow a structured trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.