empty
31.01.2025 12:49 AM
Fed Meeting Results and Key Takeaways

This image is no longer relevant

On Wednesday evening, the results of the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year were released, yet the market largely ignored them. It's unclear why this happened. My assumption is that the market is currently focused on forming a corrective wave structure for both instruments, which does not suggest a strong increase in the U.S. dollar. However, the corrective waves (b in 2) could have taken a more convincing form.

From my perspective, sellers had a clear opportunity to push both instruments lower as early as Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday. Powell's tone could not be classified as either hawkish or dovish, as it remained unchanged since the December meeting. He confirmed that the Fed will continue to ease monetary policy, but will do so gradually, as the central bank sees no need to hurry. The American economy is growing steadily, and the latest GDP report for the fourth quarter is not a "failure" in the literal sense. While GDP reports in Germany and the European Union have declined again, the U.S. economy has grown, this time by 2.3%, even though the market had expected a value of at least 2.6%. Inflation in the U.S. is also picking up, making a pause in easing more necessary than a new round of rate cuts.

Powell also addressed market participants' concerns regarding potential influence from Donald Trump on monetary policy adjustments. He made it clear that the Fed is an independent institution and does not answer to the U.S. President. Therefore, anyone expecting a stronger rate cut in 2025 due to Trump's influence can feel reassured. In my view, Powell's rhetoric is neutral but leans toward hawkish, as the Fed is likely to ease monetary policy much less aggressively than the markets had anticipated last year.

This image is no longer relevant

The market paid much more attention to the US GDP report on Thursday. It ignored the dollar-positive rhetoric of the Fed, the European Central Bank's rate cuts, weak unemployment and GDP reports in the EU. Of all the reports, it chose the only one that was not in favor of the American currency, and played it. Because of this, wave b took on a very unconvincing appearance for both instruments, and the entire correction structure may take on a rather complex form.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, the pair is still forming a bearish trend segment. The first wave of this segment appears well-structured and complete. Therefore, a three-wave or more complex corrective structure should be expected, presenting new selling opportunities at the highest points of this structure. Wave A within Wave 2 has already concluded, meaning Wave B within Wave 2 has begun and may finish as early as today.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD also indicates that the bearish trend remains intact, with Wave 1 already completed. Now, we should wait for a clear corrective wave (or a set of waves), after which new selling opportunities can be identified. The minimum target for the corrective structure is near the 1.26 level, while a more optimistic target is around 1.28. This could be an ideal time to complete Wave 1 within Wave 2.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often subject to change.
  2. If market conditions are unclear, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. Previsión de la semana. Todo lo positivo para la libra ha quedado atrás.

El par GBP/USD volvió a negociarse con mínima volatilidad el viernes, y se considera que el movimiento alcista se acerca a su conclusión lógica. En los últimos quince días

Paolo Greco 07:35 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. Avance de la semana. Otra semana aburrida.

El par de divisas EUR/USD mostró una volatilidad bastante débil la semana pasada, y el euro no pudo continuar su subida dentro de la corrección actual. Sólo sube la libra

Paolo Greco 07:35 2025-02-24 UTC+2

Petróleo y gas: La intriga de la semana y giros inesperados

Los precios del petróleo bajaron el viernes, aunque siguen mostrando un crecimiento semanal. Los principales impulsores del movimiento fueron los temores sobre interrupciones en el suministro desde Rusia

Anna Zotova 12:01 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 21 de febrero. La libra no puede subir, pero no quiere bajar.

El jueves, el par de divisas GBP/USD volvió fácil y sencillamente al nivel «7/8» de Murray - 1,2634, en torno al cual había estado negociándose desde principios de semana. Seamos

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 21 de febrero. Las actas formales de la Fed no cambiaron nada.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó moviéndose con mínima volatilidad el jueves. Casi no hay movimientos esta semana, por lo que no es tan importante en qué dirección se mueve

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 20 de febrero. La libra ignora la inflación, pero se mantiene al alza.

El par de divisas GBP/USD tenía motivos de sobra para seguir subiendo el miércoles. Al igual que el día anterior. Pero esta es la paradoja del movimiento correctivo. Cuando existen

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-02-20 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 20 de febrero. La postura de la Fed se endurece imperceptiblemente.

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció a la baja el miércoles por tercer día consecutivo. Sin embargo, la volatilidad se mantuvo extremadamente débil. Por lo tanto, sería mejor decir

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-02-20 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 19 de febrero. La libra esterlina también ha agotado sus reservas de fuerza.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se mantuvo en el mismo lugar durante la mayor parte de la jornada del martes. El lunes por la noche y el martes

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-02-19 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 19 de febrero. El euro se encuentra en el umbral de un largo flat.

El par de divisas EUR/USD no mostró ningún movimiento interesante el martes, lo que de nuevo no es sorprendente. De los eventos macroeconómicos sólo podemos destacar dos informes matutinos sobre

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-02-19 UTC+2

Noticias del mercado del gas

En el mercado del gas se ha producido una pausa después del mayor crecimiento observado durante toda la semana pasada. Pero hablaremos de la situación técnica un poco más adelante

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:27 2025-02-18 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.